China, Canada, EU and Mexico - under the fire of US tariffs

The first victims of the customs tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will be the countries that register high trade surpluses with the US, to which they export many more products than they import, states an article published by the daily France Soir.

In first place is China, with a trade surplus in goods of $295.4 billion in 2024 with the United States, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which belongs to the US Department of Commerce and which published its annual statistics in early February 2025. Considered for many years the "workshop of the world", China is a major exporting power, not only to the US, but also to the European Union, also benefiting from the local subsidiaries of large multinational corporations.

According to the cited source, Donald Trump said that the Beijing regime is taking advantage of its trade relationship with the US and an artificially low currency to make its exports more competitive. The American president also had a trade war with Beijing during his first term, when he imposed additional 20% customs duties on products imported from China.

In second place regarding the impact of the new trade tariffs imposed by Donald Trump is the European Union, which has a trade surplus of $235.6 billion with the US, with the mention that there are large differences between the member states, say the journalists of the cited source. For example, the impact will be different between the countries in the west and those in the east of the EU.

Thus, Ireland records the largest surplus in the EU on its trade relationship with the US, a trade surplus that amounts to $86.7 billion, partly explained by the presence on Irish territory of headquarters of large American companies, attracted by favorable taxation, especially in the pharmaceutical sector. Germany has a surplus of $84.8 billion, Italy $44 billion, and France, only $16.4 billion, according to data presented by US officials and cited by France Soir. The Hexagon publication shows, however, that, according to French customs data, it would rather be a deficit of several billion dollars. Among the EU countries that still register a significant trade surplus with the US are Austria ($13.1 billion) and Sweden ($9.8 billion).

Regarding the impact on our country of the new trade tariffs applied by Donald Trump at the EU level, according to an official estimate recently cited at an economic event by Dan Armeanu, vice president of the ASF, this will amount to 0.7-0.8% of GDP.

France Soir also notes that, after China and the EU, the state most affected by the trade tariffs introduced by Donald Trump is Mexico, as it has a trade surplus with the US of $171.8 billion. Vietnam follows in the ranking compiled by the cited source, with a trade surplus with the US of $123.5 billion. Both countries are recognized as useful platforms for low-cost production by multinational companies, which then export their products to major markets.

Mexico also benefits from its proximity to the US, which encourages many companies - including American ones - to build factories there.

Both countries have benefited significantly from the trade war triggered by Donald Trump during his first term in the White House. According to French journalists, Vietnam has become an ideal destination to avoid Trump's attacks on China during his first term, and has doubled its exports to the US between 2017 and 2023.

Mexico, in turn, has imported more and more products from China, which are then destined for the US market. In 2023, Mexico became the world's leading exporter to the US, overtaking China, according to the BEA.

Among the countries with a high trade surplus with the US and which will be impacted by the new tariffs introduced by Donald Trump are Taiwan ($73.9 billion), Japan ($68.5 billion), South Korea ($66 billion), Canada ($63.3 billion), India ($45.7 billion) and Thailand ($45.6 billion).

It remains to be seen which of these countries will feel the most from Donald Trump's rigors and who will enjoy his mercy, given that large companies from Taiwan and South Korea have announced investments in production capacities in the US.